Monthly wheat export flows combining USDA FGIS (USA, by region & class),
Global Trade Tracker (all other reporters), and Russian destination CSVs.
Destinations normalized via
src/clean_country_name.py. USA origins use the FGIS
region (e.g. usa_hrw_s_plains). USA is the only origin
with a wheat class breakdown.
Data: gold/all_world_wheat_known_flows.parquet,
gold/wheat_origin_competition_by_importer_region.parquet,
gold/wheat_origin_share_range_by_importer_region.parquet,
gold/wheat_origin_share_beta_p75_by_importer_region.parquet,
gold/wheat_regional_min_share_by_importer_region.parquet
USA regional origins (usa_hrw_s_plains, usa_srw_east, …) are rolled up into a single usa.
Chart is a fixed view and does not respond to the filters below.
Cumulative imports by marketing year (Jul–Jun). Each line represents one crop year. Data through the last known month from the reference file.
Average monthly market share (%) by exporter into a selected importer region over the last 5 crop years. Shows which origins compete for the same buyer in which months.
For each origin × month, shows the minimum and 90th-percentile share (%) of the destination's total imports observed across crop years in the last 7 complete crop years.
Estimated minimum share (%) of each regional origin in the destination's imports. Multi-region origins (USA wheat classes) = class quarterly min × regional avg % of class. Single-region origins = raw quarterly min. Values are quarterly expanded to monthly.
75th percentile from a Beta distribution fit on a 3-month rolling window (target month ± 1 month)
over the last 7 complete crop years. Each month uses 21 pooled observations (7 years × 3 months)
for a more robust estimate than single-month empirical percentiles. Values represent origin cap (%)
and do not sum to 100 across origins.
Usage: P75 is used in shipment cadence predictions.
The export matrix uses the P90 sibling table as its share ceiling instead.
Average monthly share (%) of a selected exporter's total volume going to each destination over the last 5 crop years. Shows where an origin sends its supplies in each month.
For each destination × month, shows the minimum and 90th-percentile share (%) of the exporter's total volume observed across crop years in the last 7 complete crop years.
75th percentile from a Beta distribution fit on a 3-month rolling window over 7 crop years.
Values represent the share cap (%) of this exporter's volume going to each destination.
Usage: P75 is used in shipment cadence predictions.
The export matrix uses the P90 sibling table as its share ceiling instead.
Monthly corn export flows combining USDA FGIS (USA, by region & class)
and Global Trade Tracker (all other reporters).
Destinations normalized via
src/clean_country_name.py. USA origins use the FGIS
region (e.g. usa_corn_river). USA is the only origin
with a corn class breakdown (yellow/white/mixed).
Data: gold/all_world_corn_known_flows.parquet,
gold/corn_origin_competition_by_importer_region.parquet,
gold/corn_origin_share_range_by_importer_region.parquet,
gold/corn_origin_share_beta_p75_by_importer_region.parquet,
gold/corn_regional_min_share_by_importer_region.parquet
USA regional origins (usa_corn_river, usa_corn_gulf, …) are rolled up into a single usa.
Chart is a fixed view and does not respond to the filters below.
Cumulative imports by marketing year (Sep–Aug). Each line represents one crop year. Data through the last known month from the reference file.
Average monthly market share (%) by exporter into a selected importer region over the last 5 crop years. Shows which origins compete for the same buyer in which months.
For each origin × month, shows the minimum and 90th-percentile share (%) of the destination's total imports observed across crop years in the last 7 complete crop years.
Estimated minimum share (%) of each regional origin in the destination's imports. Multi-region origins (USA corn, Brazil corn) = class quarterly min × regional avg % of class. Single-region origins = raw quarterly min. Values are quarterly expanded to monthly.
75th percentile from a Beta distribution fit on a 3-month rolling window (target month ± 1 month)
over the last 7 complete crop years. Each month uses 21 pooled observations (7 years × 3 months)
for a more robust estimate than single-month empirical percentiles. Values represent origin cap (%)
and do not sum to 100 across origins.
Usage: P75 is used in shipment cadence predictions.
The export matrix uses the P90 sibling table as its share ceiling instead.
Average monthly share (%) of a selected exporter's total volume going to each destination over the last 5 crop years. Shows where an origin sends its supplies in each month.
For each destination × month, shows the minimum and 90th-percentile share (%) of the exporter's total volume observed across crop years in the last 7 complete crop years.
75th percentile from a Beta distribution fit on a 3-month rolling window over 7 crop years.
Values represent the share cap (%) of this exporter's volume going to each destination.
Usage: P75 is used in shipment cadence predictions.
The export matrix uses the P90 sibling table as its share ceiling instead.