Data: predictions/fair_value_models_corn.parquet,
predictions/fair_value_models_corn_scatter.parquet
Forward-spread fair values for the current month and next five months. Spread values are percent of full financial carry, calculated from the storage charge applicable to each calendar day between contract delivery months, the nearby futures settlement, and the front Three-Month SOFR futures rate plus 200 basis points. Before Three-Month SOFR history begins, the front 30-Day Federal Funds futures rate is used. Delivery contracts roll off when their delivery month begins. Each row uses the eligible national at-price balance-sheet variable with the strongest historical quadratic fit. Fair value and the 95% range come from pooled daily spreads for the four historical years nearest the current X value.