Data: gold/fort_wayne_basis_stocks.parquet,
gold/fort_wayne_basis_monthly_history.parquet
Year-over-year change in monthly Fort Wayne corn basis matched to year-over-year change in the following December, March, June, or September regional corn stocks. Each monthly tab shows the top three regional stock features ranked by univariate linear R², testing each region by itself, every two-region sum, and every two-region ratio. The source window starts in 2015, so the first displayed YoY change is 2016. Each tab begins with the complete available monthly basis history, which starts in 2006. The lower charts test whether the applicable corn calendar spread, averaged during the month before the basis target, explains each stock model's remaining residual. The 2026 forward curve is excluded from model fitting. Each quote line uses the average of its available bid and offer, overlapping lines are averaged by month, and quarter prices are simple three-month averages. Contract letters are ignored. Current stocks come from the combined regional stocks forecast table normalized to the at-price corn balance sheet, using exports from the base at-price export matrix.