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Grain Importer Demand
Data: predictions/grain_importer_demand.parquet, predictions/indonesia_wheat_demand.parquet, predictions/indonesia_wheat_demand_scatter.parquet, predictions/world_wheat_demand.parquet, predictions/world_wheat_demand_scatter.parquet, predictions/country_wheat_demand.parquet, predictions/country_wheat_demand_scatter.parquet
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Top 15 Wheat Importers — Top 3 Predictors of Q1 YoY Demand Change
For each country the top 3 single-variable predictors (by R²) are shown from ~100 candidates:
production (top-10 exporters + target country + combos),
KE-ZC spread, KE carry, and ZC carry by month — each in raw, YoY, and
deviation-from-trend form. Price variables limited to Jan-Jun (pre-Q1). Data from 2015 forward.
Scatter Plots — Best Predictor vs Q1 Wheat Import YoY Change (MT)