Grain Regional Stocks — Simple Model

Simple OLS: Y(stocks) = f(X), where X = prev quarter stocks − exports (non-production quarters) or X = prev stocks + production − exports (production quarter: Sep for wheat, Dec for corn). Highlighted = forward projection.

Data: gold/hrw_stocks_prediction.parquet, gold/hrs_stocks_prediction.parquet, gold/srw_stocks_prediction.parquet, gold/corn_stocks_prediction.parquet, gold/crop_production.parquet. Current-year production uses yield prediction models by default (winter wheat yield predictions for HRW/SRW, spring wheat yield predictions for HRS, corn yield prediction history for corn).

HRW Stocks (M bu)

Region

HRS Stocks (M bu)

Region

SRW Stocks (M bu)

Region

Corn Stocks (M bu)

Region

SRW Scatter — by Quarter

X = prev quarter stocks − exports (non-Sep) or June stocks + production − exports (Sep). ● = predicted (no actual yet). Dashed line = OLS regression on historicals.

Region

SRW Residual Analysis — NC+VA Winter Wheat Production

Y = residual (actual stocks − predicted stocks from simple OLS above). X = NC + VA winter wheat production, deviation from linear trend. Tests whether southeastern production explains the misses.

Region

Total Prediction: Regional Buildup vs Total OLS

Regional buildup = sum of per-region OLS predictions. Total OLS = single regression fitted on summed historical totals.

HRW Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation

LOO RMSE (M bu) and R² for simple OLS (Y ~ X), by region and quarter.