Per-region OLS: target stocks = f(x1, year, x3). For non-Sep: x1 = prev quarter stocks − exports. For Sep: x1 = Jun stocks + production − exports. Exports = FGIS inspections summed over inter-quarter months (up to 2 export regions searched). x3 = best residual predictor from ~28 candidates (yield dev, acres, on/off farm ratios, etc.).
Data: predictions/hrw_wheat_stocks_from_exports.parquet,
predictions/hrs_wheat_stocks_from_exports.parquet,
predictions/srw_wheat_stocks_from_exports.parquet,
predictions/white_wheat_stocks_from_exports.parquet
Each cell shows Actual / LOO Prediction / Miss. Red = underpredicted > 25M, Green = overpredicted > 25M, Yellow = within ±25M.
Each cell shows Actual / LOO Prediction / Miss. Red = underpredicted > 25M, Green = overpredicted > 25M, Yellow = within ±25M.
Each cell shows Actual / LOO Prediction / Miss. Red = underpredicted > 25M, Green = overpredicted > 25M, Yellow = within ±25M.
Each cell shows Actual / LOO Prediction / Miss. Red = underpredicted > 25M, Green = overpredicted > 25M, Yellow = within ±25M.